Steel prices have fallen by 20% in a month. Will prices fall again?
In a steel trading company in Baoshan, Shanghai, workers are cutting steel. The person in charge told reporters that because the price has fallen too fast recently, downstream home appliance and machinery manufacturing companies are more inclined to buy steel in small quantities.
Lin Yanqing, general manager of the investment department of a steel trading group in Shanghai: The spot price of hot coils dropped from 5,800 yuan per ton in late October to the lowest level of 4,600 yuan per ton on November 19, a drop of 20%. In September, October and even Sales in November all declined to a certain extent, with a year-on-year decrease of about 15%-20%.
The person in charge told reporters that in the face of weaker downstream demand, he is also slowing down steel purchases. At present, the main focus is to make full shipments and reduce inventories. The steel coils in the warehouse used to accumulate three layers, but now there are only two layers less than.
Zheng Hao, chairman of a steel trading company in Zhejiang Province: After October, it is obvious that demand has decreased, and the impact of construction materials has been greater. The apparent demand for construction materials in October has dropped by about 30% compared with the same period last year, and industrial materials have dropped by 10%.
Industry insiders told reporters that from January to October, the floor space of housing starts fell by 7.7%. In the context of the shortage of funds of real estate developers and the poor performance of the real estate market, the terminal demand for steel has declined to a certain extent.
In early November, because the cost of stocked steel was higher than the market price, many steel mills suffered losses at that time. The profit of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei and other places even fell to 100 yuan per ton of steel. However, as steel prices gradually stabilized, steel mills' profits began to return to normal levels.
Industry insiders told reporters that both iron ore and steel are currently in a state of oversupply. However, the prices of these two are also close to the cost line, and the short-term decline is not large. The future trend of steel prices still depends on the recovery speed of downstream demand.